INTRODUCTION
Every four years, Europe’s top national men’s soccer teams battle for the UEFA European Championship, commonly known as the Euros. As of 24 June, the group stage, played in a round-robin format, has concluded. Sixteen teams have advanced to the knockout stages, but only one will hoist the Euro Cup. Here are The Reckoner’s takes on who the winner will be—along with picks for the most disappointing team, most impressive team, and best player of the tournament.
KHARI’S PREDICTIONS
Who will win?
No team in the Euros has dominated the playing field, so there are no for-sure winners. Spain’s first two matches made them early favourites, but their defensive performance against Croatia left much to be desired. However, Spain’s performance was stronger than those of France and Germany, who were sluggish in the round-robin. Belgium still hasn’t solved their problems of breaking down a tough defence, with most of their goals occurring in transition. This leads to my pick for the ultimate winner, Italy. Although they were disappointing in their match against Ireland, they made 8 changes to their starting 11. Their defence is rock solid, and with a quick counter attack here and some penalty shootout luck there, winning the tournament is a real possibility.
Who will disappoint?
Reading this question, my first instinct is to say England, but their expectations have already come crashing down to Earth with a second place finish in the group. At least one of Spain and Germany must bow out in the quarters, but I think that the most disappointing loss will be when Belgium loses to Wales. There has been so much hype around this Belgium team for the past few years with the likes of Hazard, de Bruyne, Lukaku, and Courtois, some of the most exciting players on the continent, making up the backbone of the team. However, I wasn’t impressed with their performances in the World Cup, and from what I’ve seen of them in the Euros, they haven’t improved. Even though they have so much creative talent, when faced with a team which is perfectly willing to sit back and defend, they lack the incisiveness required to find the pass that opens up the defence for a clear goalscoring opportunity. The wins over Ireland and Sweden simply gloss over these weaknesses. Wales have already beaten them once and will do so again.
Who will impress?
There are already a number of teams who have impressed. Croatia, Wales and Hungary finishing top of the group, the Irelands making it to the next round, and Iceland finishing second have all been impressive feats. But my money’s on Wales to make a surprise run to the finals. They should really be able to beat Northern Ireland, and could well upset a flawed Belgium team. With the likes of Gareth Bale, Aaron Ramsey, and (I can hardly believe I’m writing this) Joe Allen, a win in the semifinals is very possible. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to beat one of the superpowers that will surely come out of the opposite bracket in the final, but getting that far in their first European competition is impressive enough.
Who will be the player of the tournament?
The big teams in this tournament have mostly failed to impress. Although they’ve made it to the next round, many of their star players have been average, if not worse. My bold prediction for the Golden Ball winner is Leonardo Bonucci. While the likes of Gareth Bale and Dimitri Payet may score goals, if Italy wins on the back of multiple defensive masterclasses, it would be criminal not to award one of their players the Golden Ball. Bonucci is likely their best defender, and he has a wonderful passing range (see goal against Belgium), so I think that the award will go to him.
JULIEN’S PREDICTIONS
Who will win?
My prediction goes out to the young and hungry Belgium. Whatever they lack in experience, they make up for in talent. Not only do they have a pacey and dangerous attack, led by Hazard, de Bruyne, and Lukaku, but the squad also features top goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. Along with these stars, Belgium also field various other players who are considered anchors for their respective clubs, with the likes of Toby Alderweireld, Axel Witsel, Thomas Vermaelen, and Mousa Dembele all enjoying the best stage in their careers. The key to success for the Belgian squad is confidence. At some point, the players have to break out of their international slumps, and I’m predicting that they will do it right here, right now, under the bright lights of France.
Who will disappoint?
In terms of expectations, Germany has been constantly pegged to run away with this tournament, with most of the roster returning from its World Cup-winning squad from 2014. Yet like many other contenders, Germany seems to have stumbled out of the gate. Its opening 2-0 win over Ukraine summed it up. There were portions of the game when they were playing supremely and looked unbeatable, but also extended spells when they were under real pressure and so unconvincing. This odd complacency has been a concern for Germany ever since winning the World Cup, and will continue to be one going into the knockout stage. Adding to Germany’s issues is the lack of a true striker. Their current formation uses Mario Gotze as a false 9, and hasn’t really worked out in their offense. Unless Germany is able to pick up its play, a quarter- or semi-final exit seems increasingly likely.
Who will impress?
After pulling off a surprising victory over Spain, Croatia has put itself on the side of the bracket that won’t see it face tournament heavyweights (Germany, England, France, Spain, and Italy) until the grand final. Their midfield is oozing with talent, with Luka Modric, Ivan Rakitic, Mateo Kovacic, Milan Badelj, and Ivan Perisic, a plethora of players who have the skill and passing ability to create magic off the dribble. The Croatian squad, despite the struggles of striker Mario Mandzukic, have delivered on their offensive promise, scoring 1.69 goals per game, off of 50 total shots. The question then, turns to their defense. The Croatian defense boasts Darijo Srna and Sime Vrsaljko, two players who are known for their ability to deliver crosses and join the attack. Couple this with a very offensive-minded midfield, and you have a very exciting, but exploitable team. Overall, it is unlikely that Croatia will fall until at least the last four, which would make it their best performance in the history of the Euros.
Who will be the player of the tournament?
Gareth Bale has been an unstoppable force on the pitch. Not only is he the tournament’s leading goal scorer, but he has done so without significant support from his team. His 8.78 match rating is the highest in the Euros, and he has fired more shots on net than the entire French team. His incredible pace down the wing makes him a goal scoring threat at any given moment in the game, especially on a counter-attack. In addition, his ability to be an elite dribbler, passer, and free kick taker makes him the most versatile and explosive player in the tournament.
LAWRENCE’S PREDICTIONS
Who will win?
My pick goes to Spain. From the qualifying rounds to the group stage matches, Spain has outscored their opponents 28-5. La Furia Roja boasts a defense that have kept 9 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. The Spanish midfield is world-class, offering such generational talents as Busquets, Iniesta, and David Silva. Finally, Spain’s attack is a far cry from the one that won the World Cup in 2010 with a record low number of goals: players such as Morata, Aduriz, and Nolito are all available for selection. There is no team which even comes close to Spain’s completeness, except perhaps France. A late loss to Croatia doesn’t change these facts.
Who will disappoint?*
Many nations have had their own golden generation – a group of players who come and go, far exceeding the talents of those before and after them. Yet such golden generations (from Hungary in the 1950s to England in the 2000s) rarely result in trophies. Belgium is currently experiencing their own golden generation. Stars such as Courtois, de Bruyne, Hazard, and Lukaku are all key players for their own clubs. However, when it comes to performing for their country, they fall short. Perhaps it is a clash of egos. Perhaps it is a young team lacking in experience. Perhaps it is Belgian manager Wilmots’ terrible tactics. But an uninspired loss against Italy is the clearest sign of things to come. I predict an exit in the Round of 16.
*Of course, as a fan of the Netherlands, nothing could ever be as disappointing as their total failure to even qualify.
Who will impress?
The stereotype of the morose, self-deprecating England fan is a well-known piece of soccer culture. Equally notable is England’s ability to breeze through qualifiers and then choke horribly in the tournament itself. Yet this year’s squad might just have the ability to put history behind them. The English team has the right combination of veterans and young talent. Established stars like Rooney and Hart are commanding leaders, while up-and-coming players like Clyne, Stones, Alli, Sterling, and Kane bring energy and vigour. The biggest obstacle England must overcome might be manager Roy Hodgson. I predict England will go to the semifinals – and lose on penalties. That would be the most English thing imaginable.
Who will be the player of the tournament?
Andres Iniesta is the best player on the best team at this tournament. Though he doesn’t score or assist as much as you might expect given his talent, he is nonetheless the beating heart behind Spain’s attacking success. An expert at dribbling, close passing, and transitioning from midfield to offense, Don Andres’s world-class abilities will be on full display in the games to come. This tournament may well cement Iniesta’s place among the greatest midfielders of all time – Zidane, Maradona, and Joe Allen.
Illustration: Lila Huang
